Orioles' Jones not quite a steal

Where to pick Adam Jones?

For anyone out there looking for a late-round steal, the biggest question surrounding Baltimore's newest CF may be how much will he steal.

"As much as I can," Jones told me as he walked off the field at Fort Lauderdale Stadium earlier this month.

Upon further questioning, he declined to put a numeral value on his comment, further leaving us fantasy freaks in the draft-room dark. He did, however look up long enough to flash a knowing smile about what fans might be in store this summer. "As much as I can."

Here's what we know about Jones, a centerpiece in the trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle: Jones hit 25 HR last year with Tacoma in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. But the 5-tool prospect only stole 8 times in 420 at-bats. Eight bags is almost a non-factor, unless you're in an AL-only league.

But he did swipe 16 bases on 21 attempts in two levels in 2006 and has noticeably above-average speed roaming center. He stole twice in 65 at-bats in last year's cup of coffee with Seattle and he took off for second on two different occasions the day I saw him play, both times foiled by an Orioles hit.

So why is Jones' speed potential so important?

Come the 19th round in your league, when the Chris Duncans and Josh Willinghams of the world are flying off the board, trust me, you'll want to have an idea of what you might be getting in Jones. The difference in 5 or 15 SB potential can be a deal-breaker when you're fishing for a fifth outfielder.

I say his ceiling is 15 bags, with 18-20 HR power and a .280 average. But unless the Orioles move him up from the eighth spot, where he's hit all spring, his RBI and run production won't make him worth more than a last-round pick in a mixed league. Think Gary Matthews Jr. numbers, but in a worse spot in a worse lineup.

Unless you're in a keeper league, you can probably do better.

Update: Back spasms for Wood

Well, that didn't take long.

The url on my first blog had barely been registered when The Chicago Sun-Times reported that Kerry Wood was scratched from today's game in Mesa, Ariz., with back spasms.

Ugh.

The good news for Wood and Cubs fans is that it's not his shoulder. Or elbow.

The bad news for Wood and Cubs fans is it's yet another setback, even though Lou Piniella tried to down play it as "just a stiff back and nothing more."

That's like saying, he's only been on the disabled list 11 times. And Harry Caray only had a couple before the 7th.

So, how does this affect your fantasy draft? Hang tight (although not as tight as Wood's back) for a few days and see if Wood gets back on the mound by this weekend. Wood reportedly wanted to throw today, but the Cubs shut him down faster than you could spell out magnetic resonance imaging.

It could be just a tweak, and Pineilla seems to be standing behind his man in a way that makes you believe that he's still got the closer job, if healthy. But in the meantime, keep one eye on Carlos Marmol in your draft and the other eye looking out for stray billy goats.

Maybe the curse is back.

And I mean 'back.'

The Cubs' year? Knock on Wood

Has it really been 100 years?

To any and all Chicago Cubs fans, we refer to it as a life sentence. The Billy Goat. Steve Bartman. Cursed. Jinxed. We've heard it all. And there is seemingly no parole.

And now, the legend has somehow grown, as this fall marks the 100th anniversary of the last Cubs World Series championship, 1908.

It's been so documented, you can almost hear the ivy shrivel on the vine.

So in my first fantasy baseball blog, it's only fitting to bring up the most recent Wrigley legend, who is at the center of the current Cubs closer controversy: Kerry Wood.

Since the day he whiffed 20 Astros in '96, Wood has been destined to deliver a title to the North Side. And I'm here to tell you, Kerry Time has come.

Knock on Wood.

This has nothing to do with predicting a Cubs World Series. Now, that really would be a fantasy.

But for all you who may have your fantasy draft before Lou Piniella makes a decision - which is likely this weekend - Wood will be your Cubs closer in 2008.

Sure, the oft-injured Wood still needs to show he can pitch back-to-back days, but since giving up 3 runs on March 1, he's thrown 6 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits, walking none while striking out 4. I saw one of those March 9, when the slimmed-down Wood threw 98-mph cheese past Tony Pena Jr., who ended up swinging helplessly. And on his knees.

What about Carlos Marmol? Bobby Howry?

Howry's a solid setup guy, but he's been lit up like a Christmas tree this spring. Marmol's the real deal.

In fact, Marmol's stuff is nasty, probably better than Wood's. And yeah, he's the closer of the future, with a spring ERA of 1.29 not to mention the 1.43 ERA last year. Watching him close out games against the Mariners and Royals with two perfect innings and a spirited fist pump, you couldn't help but be impressed.

But as fan-friendly as Marmol is trying to be - he spent 30 minutes signing autographs for fans before one game - Wood has the sentimental fan vote and the growing sentiment is he'll get first crack at the job.

Not to mention, he's got the mystique.

For a few moments in March, when 97s and 98s flashed after each fastball and he retired the side in order, if you listened closely you could almost hear a billy goat's faint scream in the distance of the Arizona mountains.

Could this be the year? Could it?

Make Wood a top-15 closer and ride the wave yourself.