Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Final stretch: Brewers, Mets or Phils?

Nothing beats a late-September chase for the playoffs.

With five games left, three teams are battling for two spots in the National League. Sure, a few more are still mathematically alive, but basically it's the Brewers, Mets and Phillies.

And not in that order.

Thanks to Johan Santana, the Mets pulled within 1 1/2 games of the NL East-leading Phillies last night and hold a slim 1-game edge on the Brewers for the Wild Card spot.

So, who will be left without a chair when the music stops?

Conventional wisdom says it's the Brewers. After two more game with Pittsburgh, it's three with the Cubs in the Land o' Cheese.

Yes, the same Cubs who have clinched home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs and have little to nothing to play for.

Translation: The Brewers could very well sweep the Cubs, as motivation to win this weekend will be at polar opposite ends of the spectrum.

Look: The Cubs aren't about to tank the final weekend. It's considered un-American, or at least un-baseball-like for Lou Piniella to bench his starters, almost as bad as spilling your beer or not eating apple pie. Although you probably will see a few regulars get a breather, I would imagine.

If the Brewers were to get in, that would send the Cubs to Hollywood for games 3 and 4 of the opening round of the playoffs. Sure, nobody wants that kind of commute, but faced with the choice of facing the Dodgers or Mets/Phillies, I'm guess the Cubs would rather face Joe Torre's band of castoffs.

Just another reason why the Cubs shouldn't tank it.

But the sense of urgency is simply not there.

The scene in Milwaukee is quite different. The Brewers will throw C.C. Sabathia on 3-day's rest again. And will do so again this Sunday, if Sabathia's arm is still attatched.

Still, the Brewers will just miss facing Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harder, getting Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis, three fine pitchers but still hittable.

The Mets? After two with the Cubs, the host Florida for three games. And the Phillies? After tonight's game with the Braves they roll out the red carpet for the vaunted Washington Nationals, who may be re-classified a AAA team next season.

On paper, the Phils will win the East. It may come down to the final day of the season with Sabathia going for the Brewers and Santana for the Mets.

I'm feeling a one-game playoff on Monday, but regardless, if this thing comes down to Sunday afternoon, the winner will be crystal clear:

All true baseball fans.

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