Monday, April 6, 2009

Opening Day: Felipe, Cliff and Emilio


Finally.

After what seemed like half an eternity of Spring Training, baseball's official door-opening ceremony commenced in Cincinnati, like usual.

Unusual was Bessemer City's Kevin Millwood shutting down a moderately-potent Indians squad (7 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks). For those of you getting an itchy Millwood finger, remember his June ERA is usually a run higher than his 4.22 April one.

Not unusual was the rash of bad weather that smacked an ugly ppd. next to the Royals-White Sox and Red Sox-Rays. Nothing says April like come back tomorrow. And don't forget the stocking hat.

Here's a couple other interesting fantasy nuggets from the afternoon tilts you may want to chew on for a minute or two:

Felipe Lopez: In one day, Felipe has matched his HR total of all 100 games with the Nationals last year. Two long balls in a temperature-controlled Chase Field. How is this possible? Don't ask, but I beg you to take your finger off the add button. Just walk away. From 46 SB in 2006 to 8 last year, Felipe is just not worth your headache. OK, in an NL league, I suppose. But, please. I'm begging you. There's no real power or speed left. This won't end well. Just heartache. 

Brett Gardner: Yankees everyday CF is hitting 9th, which in this lineup is almost like prime real estate. Sure, he'll be lucky to scrape up 500 ABs, but with 40 SB and 85 run potential, he might be the cheapest of the cheap speed. The Yankees have scored 1 run so far, and guess who's touched the plate? You betcha.

Adam Jones: Last spring in Fort Lauderdale, Jones told me he's hoping to get 40 steals. He got 10. Yeah. Well, this year, he's talking about running more and while that could be anywhere from 11-40, what can't be denied is the number of fastballs he'll see, hitting between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. In his second at-bat today, he tripled in two and scored. A 15-15 year is possible and if the moons align, he might be a 20-20 guy and finish as a top 30 OF.

Cliff Lee: The knee-jerk reaction is to say 2008 was simply a fluke. But it's still a little early. Lee was finally healthy and won the Cy Young. Today, he was awful, just like he has been all spring. Yeah, he gave up 10 hits and 7 runs in 5 IP, but this was Arlington. The wind was blowing out 12 mph. The jacks by Hank Blalock and Salty may have been park/wind dated. Still, I'm not feeling good as a Lee owner, but don't sell too low yet. Stash, if you can. Hold your breath if you can't. Remember Sabathia last year.

C.C. Sabathia: Well, look at that. Speaking of the devil (as Red Sox fans may say, not in jest), C.C. turned into a WHIP killer, giving up 6 runs, 8 hits, 5 walks and most disturbing didn't strike out anyone. Worse news is it's came against the Orioles. Fear not, as he started worse than this in 2008 and turned into fantasy gold. Or maybe his arm's about to fall off after 400 IP in August/September. 

Seth Smith: The Rockies LF has a bomb and a bag already today. Smith projects to be a 20-10 prospect, but maybe not quite this year. Hitting second in a relatively weak lineup sans Matt Holliday, it's hard to see a ton of upside, but certainly a fine speculative pickup in gigantic mixed leagues and NL formats.

Emilio Bonifacio: Keeping with the theme of obscure top-of-the-order guys, Bonifacio is the Marlins 3B and somewhat surprise leadoff (Cameron Maybin pressure relief valve?), but I'd say he's done alright today: 4-for-4, an inside-the-park HR, 4 runs, 2 RBI. Bonifacio, a legitimate 45-50 SB candidate, is the beneficiary of hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez, who just hit a granny and all those who invested a No. 1 overall pick celebrated with an air-five to yourself and hope nobody was looking.

Tony Clark: OK, what's going on in the closed-roof of Chase Field. The Diamondbacks now have five dingers (two by Clark), as Charlotte native Chad Tracy got into the act. The Rockies have three long balls, too. Clark is part of a crowded platoon system and figures to have minuscule value in most leagues. Tracy should get more PT. Monitor his at-bats this week and consider him a mixed-league option (he hit cleanup today), but be forewarned as Bob Melvin is looking to do his own mix and match, depending on matchups. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds both sat today.


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