Saturday, March 27, 2010

7 things to know for draft day


You don't want to be that guy at the table.


The one who doesn't know that Joe Nathan is out for the year. Or that Cliff Lee is battling abdominal pains. Again.

So before you embarrass yourself by being uninformed, here are 10 things you should definitely know, headed into your draft.

1. Lance Berkman: The first-baseman who is on the downside of his career gave owners another reasons to shy away: arthroscopic surgery on his knee to clean out debris. He'll start the year on the DL, but may only miss a week or two. Still, this guy has been living on reputation for quite some time. The 1B position is too deep to waste on this guy.

2. Cliff Lee: The Mariners have shut Lee down for five days, hoping that his strained abdomen heals. If this isn't a red flag, it's certainly orange. Move Lee a couple rounds down on your draft board and $7-10 in an auction draft. He's had history with these types of injuries and you don't want to pay too much for possible damaged goods, regardless of the upside.

3. Brian Roberts: Finally, the Orioles 2B took the field on Friday without much fanfare: 0-for-3, with 3 Ks. Roberts has been dealing with a bad back all spring and is showing signs of aging. Throw in the fact he went 50-40-30 in steals the last three years, Roberts is no longer elite. Although a shallow 2B keeps his value up. I'd personally take Martin Prado over him.

4. Jason Heyward: Nov. 9, 1989: Remember where were you were when the Berlin Wall fell? Heyward probably didn't. He was 2 months old. Yup, still just a pup, the 20-year-old has broken Braves camp as their starting RF. This isn't shocking news. Heyward has been very impressive this spring (hitting .366), but he has less than 1,000 minor league ABs. Despite the legendary batting practice bombs that broke sun roofs out in the parking lot, Heyward's minor league numbers project a low-20-HR guy this year, who hits around .300. Worth owning? Absolutely. Worth a top 10-round pick? Only if you're drinking the Kool-Aid. Or in a keeper league.

5. Derek Lee: First it was the Sammy Sosa sneeze. Then, the Carlos Zambrano e-mail elbow. Then the Ryan Dempster celebration toe injury. You can add Derek Lee's chair collapse during a pre-game meal to the list of freak Cubs injuries. Hopefully this one won't keep him out long, but he has a history with back problems and this should be taken into account, if only slightly. Translation, if you were baking off Lee with Justin Morneau, Billy Butler or Adam Dunn, this could be the tie-breaker.

6. Phil Hughes: If you're looking for that sleeper pitcher to round out your staff -- and by the draft's 3rd hour, who isn't -- you might be looking at your draft book, trying to decide between Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, but missed the announcement that Hughes won the 5th starters job. Small detail, but it could end up having huge fantasy implications. Unless your team has holds -- and yes, I'm in one of those, somehow -- Joba's value has plummeted worse than Palm smart phones.

7. Jose Reyes: Thyroid problem? Yes, it's true. Diagnosed at the beginning of spring training, Reyes has taken three weeks off of all activity to get his THS levels under control. Never before has the Thyroid been such a talked about organ in sports circles. Believe me, as one who has a thyroid condition -- hypothyrodism to be exact -- this is nothing to be alarmed about. Shoot, I've had doctors who barely want to talk about it. Controlled by a little blue daily pill, once it's regulated, it's no big deal. What is a big deal is Reyes being inactive for three weeks and trying to be ready for opening day with limited swings or running. This should take 10-15 percent off his value, but don't slide him down too far, as just a year ago folks were debating this guy as a No. 1 overall pick. The real gamble is on his health, but if you can stomach that, take him in the 4th or 5th round and cross your fingers. Might not hurt to get those THS levels checked while you're at it.

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