Sheffield bailout plan hits Detroit

In a head-scratcher even by Jim Leyland standards, the Tigers released borderline Hall-of-Famer Gary Sheffield on Tuesday, eating $14 million.

Sheffield had 499 home runs and was going to be Detroit's full-time DH. 

The reason: a lack of versatility.

Huh?

"We looked at Sheffield as primarily a DH, and we don't look at Marcus (Thames) the same way," GM Dave Dombrowski said. "That's the reason."

Thames has power oozing out of his bat. But he's also a career .241 hitter and .231 against righties.

The Tigers are aging, sure. They say they want flexibility to DH Carlos Guillen, who is rarely seen without ice packs on his knees these days. They would like to have the luxury of pulling Magglio Ordonez out of right field for a DH stint. Maybe even Miguel Cabrera.

Still. This is the reason you eat $14 million? In a town like Detroit, whose economy is suffering beyond belief?

Can't imagine this will go over well with the fan base. 

Wonder if there's a Sheffield Bailout Plan we don't know about.

Fantasy Spin: Sheffield, who's battling shoulder issues, will likely get picked up by someone, as he's just one swing away from the 500 Club. But he's no longer fantasy relevant, save for deep one-league formats. Thames looks to be the main beneficiary of ABs in Detroit, but it's hard to think they'll give him 550-600 ABs with a career .302 OBP. The signing of recent Braves castoff Josh Anderson may factor into the OF mix, but in deeper mixed leagues, Thames becomes an instant pickup.  And if you're hurting for power in shallow leagues (10 teams or less), consider him a viable option of 30+ HR who will drain your average, a poor-man's Adam Dunn.

Lou picks Gregg over Marmol as closer

If you didn't see this coming, raise your hand.

The Cubs closer competition may not have been close after all. Maybe they were humoring Carlos Marmol. Or so, that's what he thinks.

"They knew what they were going to do before I got here," said Marmol on Sunday after losing out to former Marlin RP Kevin Gregg for the Cubs closer job. "That's why I say there's not competition."

To Marmol's credit, he jumped on the backward bicycle and made nice: "I guess we're going to get ready for the season, no matter what. You'll see the same smile. I'll be the same guy."

Good soldier.

Here's all that Marmol did in mostly setup duty last year in 87 1/3 IP: 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 114 Ks along with 7 saves. 

Sure, Gregg has converted 62 of 77 save chances the past two seasons with the Fish, but even he sounded a little surprised to get the nod: "Marmol's ability to get five or six outs, it's crazy just to watch him go out there and he dominates lefties and righties."

But you had to know this was in the works:

1). Lou Piniella loves experienced closers. Ding.

2). Marmol all but forfeited his chance when he went on a 3-week hiatus to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the WBC (you didn't see Derek Lee leave camp, with Micah Hoffpauir breathing down his neck?) 

3). This takes the pressure off Marmol, the closer of the future, and the second Gregg blows two saves in a row, Lou will start massaging Marmol's shoulders.

Sure, Gregg has been nearly perfect this spring, has passable closer stuff and can get you close to a K an inning, but he doesn't have the out pitch or the dominance that Marmol possesses. And doesn't throw near the smoke.

Just listen to him and see for yourself:

Fantasy Spin: By all means, take your finger off the drop button. Unless you are stocked with plenty of sure-fire closers on your team, try to find room for Marmol. Consider this: In 2008, with only 7 saves and 2 wins, his other numbers were so good, he was ranked as the 10th most valuable RP by Yahoo! What's the over/under that Marmol takes over closing duties by June 1? I'd say 40 percent. And 60 percent by July 4. And don't rule out a spot save chance every two weeks or so. This isn't one of those deals where the closer will get chance after chance, while the manager spits out his Big League Chew excess in the nearest dugout spittoon. All it's gonna take is any Gregg injury or a small stretch of bad road and Lou will make the switch. He's just making this interesting for fantasy owners.

Rays' demotion of Price a 'baseball decision'?

Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann.

This will be the answer to the trivia question, in a bar somewhere, to the question, who beat out David Price for the Rays' 5th starting pitching job in 2009.

Welcome to small-time baseball, with your host Tampa Bay.

The Rays came from obscurity and mediocrity last season, shocking the baseball world with a World Series berth most thought belonged to the Red Sox.

They accomplished this with a tiny budget, using frugal means, retread closers, young players and a rising pitching staff.

Nothing's change a year later. The Rays are somewhere between frugal and cheap. The difference may be simply how you were raised.

I used to think they were simply frugal. Now, after David Price's demotion to AAA to start the season - a year after they did the same thing with All-Star Evan Longoria - I'm convinced they're simply cheap.

Frugal is not going out and signing overrated Pat Burrell to a 2-year, $16 million contract and then a few months later try to play off the Price demotion as purely a "baseball decision." The change-up and slider location simply are not worthy.

C'mon. Ask J.D. Drew about Price's slider location.

Through 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, Price has a 1.08 ERA, striking out 10 and walking 6 (Hammel a 4.95 ERA; Niemann a 6.32).

Earlier today, XM interviewed St. Pete Times beat writer Marc Topkin, who said Price's change-up had gone from suspect to one of the best 3 or 4 change-ups on the whole staff after he worked on it in the offseason.

The change-up that the Rays are most interested is the number of dollars they'll be able to sign Price in a long-term deal, ala Evan Longoria, who they were able to coax into signing a 6-year, $17.5 million deal days after calling him up in mid-April last spring.

Longoria, widely believed to be one of the top-hitting 3B in the game already, was worth way more than $3 million a year. Sure, the deal has 3 option years attached, which would raise the total deal to $44 over 9 years, but they are team options and that still isn't anywhere near market value.

Basically, it's his contract price that ultimately cost Price a demotion.

Cue appropriate Alanis Morissette ditty.

Fantasy Spin: What to do with David Price? This will haunt fantasy owners for the next 1-2 months. If your league has bench spot, it's a no-brainer. Stash and wait. It's leagues where you have no bench spots, where it gets sticky. What is Price's value for, say, 4 or 5 months, compared to the next best waiver option? I'm betting that Price is called up mid-May and that he'll outperform your NBO (next best option) in every category, besides possibly wins. Even in my 10-team Observer mixed league, I'm not planning on dropping him. Just too much talent. And he's just fun to watch.

Observations from Spring Training

MESA - Next year is here. 

Or so the Cubs are hoping. They've tweaked and twittered with their lineup. Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg in, Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood out.

After two straight seasons of being swept in the first round, Cubs GM Jim Hendry has decided his team was too right-handed to break the Billy Goat Curse, and has brought in the brittle Bradley to infuse some lefty life into the right-leaning Cubbies.

Lefty Mike Fontenot will start at 2B and switch-hitting Aaron Miles will also spell the infield, but will all the left-right, fair and balanced lineup in the world help the mounting expectations on the Northsiders to win a World Championship? 

Probably not.

But Jake Peavy sure would help. Check back in July on that front.

But for now, some random observations from a recent trip to Arizona, where the Cubs lost four of five games.

WHITE SOX: Jeffrey Marquez, who came over in the Nick Swisher trade, looks rock solid against the Cubs in Las Vegas as he continues to make his bid to be Chicago's fifth starter. Marquez threw three scoreless innings, giving up one walk and one hit, while striking out two. Marquez forced Alfonso Soriano to pop out twice on three total pitches. Look for him in AL only leagues now and a deep sleeper in mixed formats. Also, in deeper AL leagues, keep Gordan Beckham on the radar.

L.A. DODGERS: This team looks very mediocre offensively without Manny Ramirez, although Matt Kemp looks like the top-40 overall pick that most people are predicting. Some of his production depends on where Joe Torre slots Kemp, but against the Cubs, he recorded a single, stole a base and was caught one other time. So far, he's 3 of 5 in spring training SB, and has 2 HR, making another 20-35 campaign not too far fetched.

BREWERS: When you look up and down this offensive lineup, all you see is fantasy studs: Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart....shoot, even J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron are useful mixed-league players. But against Carlos Zambrano, the Brew Crew was quieter than the Bratwurst in the Great Sausage Race. Try to get a piece of this offense if you can. But as far as the pitching staff, outside of Yovani Gallardo, don't waste your time.

RANGERS: Just a fun team to watch. And with Arlington as a pressure-cooker to play in, look for big numbers. Josh Hamilton is the biggest name and has forearms the size of tree trunks, although they're completely tattoed. Hamilton's story is quite inspiring, almost as much as watching him sign for 45 minutes before the game, posing for pictures with anyone who asked. Keep Chris Davis on your round 6-7 radar. And don't reach too high for Ian Kinsler. A 10th overall pick is plenty high enough.

ROYALS: Besides looking very short, Kansas City did very little to stick out. Alex Gordon has a cannon and is promising, but strip away his name and .260-16-59-9 is just not worth a top 150 pick, so don't reach. I tucked Mike Jacobs and his 32 HR 2008 campaign away on one of my auction teams for a buck.

Manny turns down Dodgers' latest offer

It's almost hard to imagine.

In an economy this bad, anyone would turn down a 2-year, $45 million deal.

But then again, it is Manny Ramirez.

After the Los Angeles Dodgers worked to restructure the deal to Manny's specifications (including making the second year a PLAYER option), the free agent dreadlocked one told L.A., naah, I'm good.

What?

Turn down a guaranteed $45 million in a time when it seems like 45 million are unemployed?

I sure hope Manny and agent Scott Boras know what they're doing.

Word is, they want to get paid what Manny is worth. Well, newsflash, he's only worth what a team is willing to pay.

The market has dried up faster than Tiger Woods' Match Play performance, and the Dodgers have come out and said they feel like they're negotiating with themselves.

This game of chicken doesn't appear to be ending any time soon.

Manny needs L.A. And L.A. needs Manny.

In the end, a deal will get done, but neither may be happy.

Fantasy Spin: The only really valuable Manny is one that's paid according to him. Is Manny a top 5 player? Possibly. Is he worth more than 25/1 or 45/2 at his age? Not in these economics. What may hurt his fantasy value most is Boras' inflated value of him. If Manny thinks the Dodgers are going cheap on him, there's a chance you could see Sulking Mannny and not NLCS Manny. And he difference is about two rounds in a fantasy draft. Either way, you can't expect him to do what he did in the last half of last year. He's not going to hit .350. That was a contract year and this will not be. Early-to-mid second round is the earliest I'd bite.

Coming soon: Look for a position-by-position fantasy preview, starting next week, just in time for your draft.

Dunny, Abreu go cheap; Manny too?

Alas, with pitchers and catchers reporting next week, some of the biggest names are finally getting signed.

The market for second-tier hitters predictably was going to be hurt by the economy, but who saw this coming?

• Bobby Abreu: Signed a 1-year, $5 million deal with the Angels today. What?!? This, from a guy who was looking for a 3-year, $48 million dollar deal back in November. I know, it includes some incentives, but talk about bargain basement time. Everything must go. I guess the thinking is, sign for one years, and hope the market rebounds in 2010.
• Adam Dunn: Signed a 2-year, $20 million deal with the Nationals. Nobody knew exactly where the Dunn market was, but for the only legit 40-HR guy in the game, this is equally stunning. Possibly more shocking is that he signed with the going-nowhere Nats. 

What does this mean for the Manny Ramirez market? Well, it's hard to know for sure, but if I was Man-Ram, I might be thinking twice about putting on that addition to the house. 

Yeah, right. He'll still probably come close to the 2-year, $45 million deal that the Dodgers offered a couple months ago. It's hard to undercut an earlier offer to a guy like Manny and expect him to perform. 

L.A. is the perfect fit. He knows it. The Dodgers need him desperately. It's just a big game of chicken between Scott Boras and the Dodgers and this time, I think Boras is going to have to blink first.

The Giants have shown some interest, but comments this week seem like they've cooled their interest and there's no other viable big-money match for Manny. Could he end up with less than 2/45? It's possible. The Dodgers may stick to the 1/25 approach that Boras scoffed at, seconds after it was put on the table.

Boras is excellent at creating an inflated market, but after the Dunn/Abreu signings, it's clear, there isn't a market.

The Cubs, who gave Milton Bradley 3 years, $30 million, have got to be shaking their head. Yes, Bradley gives you power/average/speed and is a good defender in right. But he's only played over 101 games twice in his career (since 2000). 

I'll take Dunn's five straight years of at least 152 games and 40 HR in a heartbeat over Bradley. Sure, Dunn strikes out three times a game, but stick that  .381 lifetime on-base-percentage between Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez and then who are you going to pitch around? And Abreu is an RBI machine and still has the speed Lou Pinella covets, even if his defense is slacking.

But this isn't a rant about the Cubs, more about Manny. Good luck getting that 3rd or 4th year. If Boras can pull this off, you'd better be putting an addition on his house. 

Fantasy spin: You can sufficiently take Adam Dunn off your keeper list now, unless it happens to be a 65+ keeper format. Playing in D.C. with a cast of characters, Dunn's production should easily dip to the 30-35 HR level with possibly less than 100 RBI. Couple that with a .240 average and he's no longer special. The only caveat is if you're league includes .obp, in which case you could justify making him a top 50 player, but nothing higher.

As far as Abreu goes, this might actually increase his value a tick. Sure, he doesn't have the Yankee lineup around him, but that one in Anaheim is just as intimidating and now he's in a system where they run at all costs. Look for Abreu to push 40 steals with similar so-so power numbers (20 HR, 105 RBI). But if he can stay healthy, you might be looking at a 2nd or 3rd round steal.

After Aroid report, who's to blame?

Not surprised.

That seems to be the general reaction of SI's report that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids in 2003.

Which doesn't make it right. It's just that the more names come out, whether it's Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Jason Giambi, the more you realize that the steroid issue was so wide-sweeping in the late-90s and the earlier part of this decade, it's becoming a non-story.

So, Arod is really Aroid. Add another log on the fire. Yawn. Back to the Manny watch.

The fact that Arod admitted to doing performing-enhancing drugs in a Monday ESPN interview is actually the brightest part of this story. Baseball fans are forgiving of a lot of thing, but we don't like a phonie.

Please don't insult our intelligence with the insistent denials.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not condoning this. And I'm not advocating that 'roids were good for the game. Or that Arod is a hero because he came clean.

Here's the deal: The game knew what was going on and did nothing about it for years and years, while the home run ball exclusively saved its hide and padded its pockets with a revenue stream that no one could have imagined after the 1994 strike.

Talk radio and sports Internet sites have been rampant with the Aroid talk since news broke Saturday and that's exactly what it is - a talker. And it's a slow news day.

But as much as I'm not an Arod fan, seems he's not getting a fair shake here.

The 2003 test when he was with the Texas Rangers was completely anonymous and done just to get a percentage of how many players were actually using. Why the results were not destroyed is the most interesting part of this story.

I've been taking an unscientific poll trying to get an estimate of the percentage of MLB players who were using steroids before testing. The over/under is somewhere around 65 percent.

Think about all the players you've heard come out and preach about how wrong steroids are. How many have done that? Hmmm....

I remember John Smoltz speaking up once. And, um ... well ... uh, hmmm ... lemme get back to you on that.

If there were that many players who have always been clean, don't you think they'd be a little more vocal about this issue?

Is Arod guilty? With this report and admission, the answer is yes. And he's also guilty of lying to Katie Couric in a Dec. 2007 interview, which is exactly why Bonds is in so much hot water. It's not so much that he used 'em, but he lied about it.

And of course Bonds did so to a Grand Jury, which is just a scoch more serious than Katie Couric.

Why players don't come out and admit to using steroids is the biggest mystery. Those who have admitted it to at least some degree -- Pettitte, Giambi and Brian Roberts for starters -- are being treated with much more respect in the court of public opinion than McGwire, Bonds and Clemens who are clinging to their denial like saran wrap on a slab of Alaska Salmon.

I guess it's all about their chances of getting into the Hall of Fame. Popular opinion is that the old-timers voting will never enshrine someone who did performance-enhancing drugs.

But the rub is, that in the next two decades, it may be as high as 7 or 8 out of 10 players on the ballot have "experimented" at some point in their career. The real numbers we won't ever know.

That most were never caught is really not the issue.

The issue is that 1). It was more the rule than the exception and 2). It wasn't illegal. At least not by baseball's rules. So, why hold it against a player when it comes to the Hall?

If anything, blame baseball, and everyone who knowingly kept silent, for not cracking down sooner. Blame the game's greed of filling seats, selling merchandise and signing lucrative TV contracts at any cost.

That is, until Congress intervened. Had they not, we still might not have testing.

For years, MLB looked the other way.

It's about time fans do the same.

Let's move on.

Fantasy Spin: With your draft coming up in the next month or six weeks, you have to ask yourself what this will do to Arod's draft status. Do you drop him out of the first round?

With all the testing going on now, I doubt seriously, he's been using 'em in the past few years. And you saw what he did in 2007. Could that have been 'roid-inflated? Possibly. But the risks of getting caught are just too great. That was probably more about a contract year than anything.

A top-3 pick in most mock drafts, I wouldn't take Arod before 7 or 8 this year, not because his production will suffer because he's off the juice. But because of the pressure. Arod is one of the biggest image guys in the game and he puts tremendous pressure on him. With this news following him around this year, like a Springsteen roadie, you can only imagine many long 0-4 summer nights with 2 Ks.

Will he hit .290, 35 HR an drive in 110? Probably. But don't expect too much more.