Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Pick me up: Gutiérrez, Morgan

The coffee is brewing in the other room. You can smell it.


Latte? Cappuccino? Doesn't matter, as far as you're concerned.

Your fantasy team is already in need for a pick-me-up and, really, any black, stiff drink will do. 

Welcome to Waiver Wire Wednesday, with your host desperate measures. 

Hopefully, you can see the dripping sarcasm here. It's way too early to be hitting any sort of panic button. Many teams have played just one game. Give it a couple weeks before jumping to any conclusions about category deficiencies. 

But that doesn't mean you should be asleep at the waiver wheel. Every year, there's a handful of gems plucked in the first 2-3 weeks. Even Albert Pujols was a waiver add in most leagues in 2001 and ended up batting .329 with 37 HR, 130 RBI.

That happens once or twice a decade, but here are a couple options that may do more than just patch a hole on your squad.

American League

Franklin Gutiérrez, Seattle, OF: The Cleveland Indians import (from the 12-player J.J. Putz trade) has landed an every-day RF job, replacing Raul Ibanez. But more importantly, he's earned the No. 2 spot in the M's batting order as Jose Lopez has been moved to 6th in the order.

Gutiérrez is a career .280 avg./.349 obp. guy in the minors, but he has just enough power and speed to be mixed-league relevant. And if he stays in the 2 hole, between Ichiro and Griffey, you could be looking at a end-season line of .270, 18 HR, 10 SB, 95 runs, 70 RBI. Already, he's hitting 3-for-8 with a HR, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored.

Of course, there's a chance Lopez takes back over the 2 spot, which would diminish the number of fastballs this righty sees and cut his run production by a third, but this is the season of taking chances.

National League
Nyjer Morgan, OF, Pirates: The en vogue add of Opening Day was undoubtedly Emilio Bonifacio, the unknown Marlins leadoff batter who posted one of the best fantasy lines you'll see all year: 4-for-5, HR, 3 SB, 4 runs, 2 RBI. 

And I'm not saying Bonifacio doesn't have his beneficios. But if you missed out on this fast fish, take a look at the Pirates new leadoff speedster.

Morgan only stole one base in his opener, but comparing pedigrees (Morgan, Bonifacio), Morgan had one more steal (231-230) in almost 600 fewer at-bats. Further, he hit 9 points higher and carried an obp. of 29 points higher, plus he plays in a division with far weaker pitching than Bonifacio, if you're into looking at that stuff. 

Of course, leading off for the Pirates is sort of like being the tallest midget in the circus, but hitting ahead of McLouth, Doumit and LaRoche isn't the worst spot. Morgan's hitting .444 for the year with a steal, 2 RBI and 2 runs, which he plated last night, despite a 1-for-4 outing, providing us a glimmer of how easily the runs may coming.

Morgan has no power, but a total of 50 steals, 105 runs, 40 RBI with a .280 average is not just a pipe dream.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Opening Day: Felipe, Cliff and Emilio


Finally.

After what seemed like half an eternity of Spring Training, baseball's official door-opening ceremony commenced in Cincinnati, like usual.

Unusual was Bessemer City's Kevin Millwood shutting down a moderately-potent Indians squad (7 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 1 BB, 5 Ks). For those of you getting an itchy Millwood finger, remember his June ERA is usually a run higher than his 4.22 April one.

Not unusual was the rash of bad weather that smacked an ugly ppd. next to the Royals-White Sox and Red Sox-Rays. Nothing says April like come back tomorrow. And don't forget the stocking hat.

Here's a couple other interesting fantasy nuggets from the afternoon tilts you may want to chew on for a minute or two:

Felipe Lopez: In one day, Felipe has matched his HR total of all 100 games with the Nationals last year. Two long balls in a temperature-controlled Chase Field. How is this possible? Don't ask, but I beg you to take your finger off the add button. Just walk away. From 46 SB in 2006 to 8 last year, Felipe is just not worth your headache. OK, in an NL league, I suppose. But, please. I'm begging you. There's no real power or speed left. This won't end well. Just heartache. 

Brett Gardner: Yankees everyday CF is hitting 9th, which in this lineup is almost like prime real estate. Sure, he'll be lucky to scrape up 500 ABs, but with 40 SB and 85 run potential, he might be the cheapest of the cheap speed. The Yankees have scored 1 run so far, and guess who's touched the plate? You betcha.

Adam Jones: Last spring in Fort Lauderdale, Jones told me he's hoping to get 40 steals. He got 10. Yeah. Well, this year, he's talking about running more and while that could be anywhere from 11-40, what can't be denied is the number of fastballs he'll see, hitting between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. In his second at-bat today, he tripled in two and scored. A 15-15 year is possible and if the moons align, he might be a 20-20 guy and finish as a top 30 OF.

Cliff Lee: The knee-jerk reaction is to say 2008 was simply a fluke. But it's still a little early. Lee was finally healthy and won the Cy Young. Today, he was awful, just like he has been all spring. Yeah, he gave up 10 hits and 7 runs in 5 IP, but this was Arlington. The wind was blowing out 12 mph. The jacks by Hank Blalock and Salty may have been park/wind dated. Still, I'm not feeling good as a Lee owner, but don't sell too low yet. Stash, if you can. Hold your breath if you can't. Remember Sabathia last year.

C.C. Sabathia: Well, look at that. Speaking of the devil (as Red Sox fans may say, not in jest), C.C. turned into a WHIP killer, giving up 6 runs, 8 hits, 5 walks and most disturbing didn't strike out anyone. Worse news is it's came against the Orioles. Fear not, as he started worse than this in 2008 and turned into fantasy gold. Or maybe his arm's about to fall off after 400 IP in August/September. 

Seth Smith: The Rockies LF has a bomb and a bag already today. Smith projects to be a 20-10 prospect, but maybe not quite this year. Hitting second in a relatively weak lineup sans Matt Holliday, it's hard to see a ton of upside, but certainly a fine speculative pickup in gigantic mixed leagues and NL formats.

Emilio Bonifacio: Keeping with the theme of obscure top-of-the-order guys, Bonifacio is the Marlins 3B and somewhat surprise leadoff (Cameron Maybin pressure relief valve?), but I'd say he's done alright today: 4-for-4, an inside-the-park HR, 4 runs, 2 RBI. Bonifacio, a legitimate 45-50 SB candidate, is the beneficiary of hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez, who just hit a granny and all those who invested a No. 1 overall pick celebrated with an air-five to yourself and hope nobody was looking.

Tony Clark: OK, what's going on in the closed-roof of Chase Field. The Diamondbacks now have five dingers (two by Clark), as Charlotte native Chad Tracy got into the act. The Rockies have three long balls, too. Clark is part of a crowded platoon system and figures to have minuscule value in most leagues. Tracy should get more PT. Monitor his at-bats this week and consider him a mixed-league option (he hit cleanup today), but be forewarned as Bob Melvin is looking to do his own mix and match, depending on matchups. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds both sat today.


What we learned from Braves' opener


Atlanta smacked the World Champs, launching three bombs off Brett Myers and won 4-1 in Philly.

What's this all mean? Big whoop.

One game. And the Phillies were missing their ace, Cole Hamels. Sure, it's nice to beat the defending World Series Champions, but that's about it.

Unless you're playing fantasy.

Opening Day has always been a close second for fantasy goose bumps. If Draft Day is Christmas Eve, Opening Day is that first good present you find under the tree, after the socks and wall calendar have been open.

So, quickly (you've got games to watch today and lineups to set), a few things we learned in the past 24 hours:

1). Jordan Schafer (pictured above waltzing around the bases): Real Deal? We can't be sure yet, even after homering in his first MLB at-bat. The Braves new CF is definitely a nice prospect whose spring was so impressive, it forced Atlanta to trade Josh Anderson. Most-likely Schafer's a 15-15 guy, who unless he gets moved from the 8th spot, stays an NL-only guy for the most part. But keep tabs on his batting spot (a move to the No. 2 spot could turn him into mixed-league money). And actually, 18-12 might be more accurate when talking how high this Jordan can fly his rookie year. Think poor man's Hunter Pence. In a recession.

2). Derek Lowe: Pitched 8 innings of 2-hits, no walks with 4 Ks. Count me among Lowe's skeptics as he few off many draft boards in the top 10 rounds. Yes, it's just one outing, but after silencing the bats of Rollins, Utley, Howard and Co., you start to wonder if Lowe might be Lincecum minus 100 Ks this year. Doesn't sound great, until you realize that makes him a Top 10 SP. Not a great time to buy low, however. But it looks like a sound investment by both fantasy owners and the Braves' brass, who gave him 5 years and $60 million.

3. Jayson Werth: If you're looking for this year's Shane Victorino, look no further than the guy who is now hitting in S-Vic's batting spot. Maybe Charlie Manuel is still tinkering, but if Werth sticks as the No. 2 hitter and Victorino stays at No. 6, Werth owners may have struck fantasy gold. 30-30? I wouldn't bet the farm, but maybe a few of the cows. And he might be the cheapest fantasy player to do so. The Flyin' Hawaiian doesn't lose all value, as he'll probably steal from anywhere, but goodbye 110 runs and hello 65.

4. Jeff Francoeur: After getting totally hosed by Francoeur's demotion to AAA last summer, I've vowed never to spend Francs again. He'll probably be waiver wire cotton candy tomorrow, but how much do you trust a guy who hit .239 last year. Even if he did change his approach in the box. Might be a good sell-high if he has a good April.

5. Jeff Samardzija: One of the hardest names to spell in all of sports, Mr. N.D. was option to AAA Iowa and will be used as a starter down there, until the Cubs need him. Hello, this is Rich Harden calling. You might wait to put down money on a Des Moines apartment. See if you can get one of those classy rent-by-the-week hotels.

6. Justin Upton: He was on my radar, but was too pricey for my frugal blood at our auction draft and I'm starting to wonder about his value this year. Bob Melvin throwing everyone in the dessert for a loop, sitting Upton and Mark Reynolds in favor of Eric Byrnes and Tony Clark. There could be some major ABs by someone in the 'Zona OF, if Byrnes is really back. My guess is it'll be Upton early, then a little bit of everyone later. Until Byrnes re-injures the hammy. But on the bright side, he'll have more time for his XM show.

7. Josh Anderson: Mentioned earlier, as a Braves castoff. He's reportedly starting in left for the Tigers today. AL-only leaguers, listen up. If Anderson puts up, he could get a lion's share of LF duties, but his playing time is 70 percent speculation.

8. White Sox: Today's opener already snowed out. And people have to ask why I moved south from Illinois. They'll try again Tuesday.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Huston, we have a closer ... and other updates

Huston Street, one of the pieces in the November Matt Holliday trade, has beat out Manny Corpas as the Rockies closer.

No one will confuse Street with a pillar of health, but hey, he's got a closer job. For now, anyway. So scoop him up, if he's still out there.

Street's a 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, K-an-inning guy and if he can stay healthy, you may be looking at 35 saves. Just as likely though is an injury or struggles that moves Corpas into the Mile High role at some point. Stash Corpas, if you have a bench, or you're in an NL-only league.

Around the League: Gary Sheffield is talking to the Reds. Or at least answering a call from Dusty Baker. Seriously? This would seemingly throw a wrench into that whole "getting younger, sleeker, quicker" stump speech from Cincy's PR department. One thing hasn't changed: Dusty's love for the broken down veteran. ... Scott Baker, the Twinkies opening day starter, will now be eating twinkies as he starts the year on the DL. It's just stiffness in his right shoulder, folks, nothing too serious. Yet. Baker can come off April 12. ... Clemson's all-or-nothing free swinger Khalil Greene may end up be the Cardinals cleanup hitter vs. lefties, which means he's really impressing Tony LaRussa or Ryan Ludwick has officially jumped the shark ... Former Tar Heel LHP Andrew Miller won the fifth starters job with the Fish. Deep sleeper alert. NL-only leagues apply, but all leagues should keep one eye open, if Miller can ever tame that WHIP. ... Andruw Jones made the Rangers roster as the fifth OF (yawn). If he's owned in one percent of one percent of leagues, I'd be surprised. This could, however, affect Hank Blalock owners vs. lefties. ... Scott Podsednik, of one-time fantasy relevance, was cut by the Rockies. Raise your hand if you're a recovering Pods owner. Ahhh, yeah. Those were the days. Anyway, Pods says he can still play, but my guess is it's the end of the road for the one-category wonder. ... Back to the Arch, Troy Glaus is on the shelf for at least two months and maybe the All-Star break. David Freese (who obviously spells his name wrong) is the fill-in and hit .306 with 26 HR in 464 AAA at-bats. Even mixed-leaguers should monitor this deep Freese option (yes, I've heard them all).

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Sheffield bailout plan hits Detroit

In a head-scratcher even by Jim Leyland standards, the Tigers released borderline Hall-of-Famer Gary Sheffield on Tuesday, eating $14 million.


Sheffield had 499 home runs and was going to be Detroit's full-time DH. 

The reason: a lack of versatility.

Huh?

"We looked at Sheffield as primarily a DH, and we don't look at Marcus (Thames) the same way," GM Dave Dombrowski said. "That's the reason."

Thames has power oozing out of his bat. But he's also a career .241 hitter and .231 against righties.

The Tigers are aging, sure. They say they want flexibility to DH Carlos Guillen, who is rarely seen without ice packs on his knees these days. They would like to have the luxury of pulling Magglio Ordonez out of right field for a DH stint. Maybe even Miguel Cabrera.

Still. This is the reason you eat $14 million? In a town like Detroit, whose economy is suffering beyond belief?

Can't imagine this will go over well with the fan base. 

Wonder if there's a Sheffield Bailout Plan we don't know about.

Fantasy Spin: Sheffield, who's battling shoulder issues, will likely get picked up by someone, as he's just one swing away from the 500 Club. But he's no longer fantasy relevant, save for deep one-league formats. Thames looks to be the main beneficiary of ABs in Detroit, but it's hard to think they'll give him 550-600 ABs with a career .302 OBP. The signing of recent Braves castoff Josh Anderson may factor into the OF mix, but in deeper mixed leagues, Thames becomes an instant pickup.  And if you're hurting for power in shallow leagues (10 teams or less), consider him a viable option of 30+ HR who will drain your average, a poor-man's Adam Dunn.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Lou picks Gregg over Marmol as closer

If you didn't see this coming, raise your hand.

The Cubs closer competition may not have been close after all. Maybe they were humoring Carlos Marmol. Or so, that's what he thinks.

"They knew what they were going to do before I got here," said Marmol on Sunday after losing out to former Marlin RP Kevin Gregg for the Cubs closer job. "That's why I say there's not competition."

To Marmol's credit, he jumped on the backward bicycle and made nice: "I guess we're going to get ready for the season, no matter what. You'll see the same smile. I'll be the same guy."

Good soldier.

Here's all that Marmol did in mostly setup duty last year in 87 1/3 IP: 2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 114 Ks along with 7 saves. 

Sure, Gregg has converted 62 of 77 save chances the past two seasons with the Fish, but even he sounded a little surprised to get the nod: "Marmol's ability to get five or six outs, it's crazy just to watch him go out there and he dominates lefties and righties."

But you had to know this was in the works:

1). Lou Piniella loves experienced closers. Ding.

2). Marmol all but forfeited his chance when he went on a 3-week hiatus to pitch for the Dominican Republic in the WBC (you didn't see Derek Lee leave camp, with Micah Hoffpauir breathing down his neck?) 

3). This takes the pressure off Marmol, the closer of the future, and the second Gregg blows two saves in a row, Lou will start massaging Marmol's shoulders.

Sure, Gregg has been nearly perfect this spring, has passable closer stuff and can get you close to a K an inning, but he doesn't have the out pitch or the dominance that Marmol possesses. And doesn't throw near the smoke.

Just listen to him and see for yourself:




Fantasy Spin: By all means, take your finger off the drop button. Unless you are stocked with plenty of sure-fire closers on your team, try to find room for Marmol. Consider this: In 2008, with only 7 saves and 2 wins, his other numbers were so good, he was ranked as the 10th most valuable RP by Yahoo! What's the over/under that Marmol takes over closing duties by June 1? I'd say 40 percent. And 60 percent by July 4. And don't rule out a spot save chance every two weeks or so. This isn't one of those deals where the closer will get chance after chance, while the manager spits out his Big League Chew excess in the nearest dugout spittoon. All it's gonna take is any Gregg injury or a small stretch of bad road and Lou will make the switch. He's just making this interesting for fantasy owners.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Rays' demotion of Price a 'baseball decision'?


Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann.

This will be the answer to the trivia question, in a bar somewhere, to the question, who beat out David Price for the Rays' 5th starting pitching job in 2009.

Welcome to small-time baseball, with your host Tampa Bay.

The Rays came from obscurity and mediocrity last season, shocking the baseball world with a World Series berth most thought belonged to the Red Sox.

They accomplished this with a tiny budget, using frugal means, retread closers, young players and a rising pitching staff.

Nothing's change a year later. The Rays are somewhere between frugal and cheap. The difference may be simply how you were raised.

I used to think they were simply frugal. Now, after David Price's demotion to AAA to start the season - a year after they did the same thing with All-Star Evan Longoria - I'm convinced they're simply cheap.

Frugal is not going out and signing overrated Pat Burrell to a 2-year, $16 million contract and then a few months later try to play off the Price demotion as purely a "baseball decision." The change-up and slider location simply are not worthy.

C'mon. Ask J.D. Drew about Price's slider location.

Through 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, Price has a 1.08 ERA, striking out 10 and walking 6 (Hammel a 4.95 ERA; Niemann a 6.32).

Earlier today, XM interviewed St. Pete Times beat writer Marc Topkin, who said Price's change-up had gone from suspect to one of the best 3 or 4 change-ups on the whole staff after he worked on it in the offseason.

The change-up that the Rays are most interested is the number of dollars they'll be able to sign Price in a long-term deal, ala Evan Longoria, who they were able to coax into signing a 6-year, $17.5 million deal days after calling him up in mid-April last spring.

Longoria, widely believed to be one of the top-hitting 3B in the game already, was worth way more than $3 million a year. Sure, the deal has 3 option years attached, which would raise the total deal to $44 over 9 years, but they are team options and that still isn't anywhere near market value.

Basically, it's his contract price that ultimately cost Price a demotion.

Cue appropriate Alanis Morissette ditty.

Fantasy Spin: What to do with David Price? This will haunt fantasy owners for the next 1-2 months. If your league has bench spot, it's a no-brainer. Stash and wait. It's leagues where you have no bench spots, where it gets sticky. What is Price's value for, say, 4 or 5 months, compared to the next best waiver option? I'm betting that Price is called up mid-May and that he'll outperform your NBO (next best option) in every category, besides possibly wins. Even in my 10-team Observer mixed league, I'm not planning on dropping him. Just too much talent. And he's just fun to watch.