Live Blog 3: A's Ellis goes Yard

Predictably, Dice-K is struggling in the first.

Playing in front of the home crowd, Matzusaka's nerves seem to be getting the best of him.

After inducing Travis Buck to a groundout on the first pitch of the game, Mark Ellis takes Matzusaka out of the park with a HR to make it 1-0. 

This is particularly painful. Not because I have Dice-K on my AL-only team, but because I begged my co-owner to draft him several times, only to let him slip through our fingers. OK, I didn't exactly beg, but I definitely wanted Ellis. What's not to like? 

Ellis belted 19 HR in his first season with 150 at-bats and added 9 steals. Nineteen HR from a guy who's drafted on average as the 21st second baseman out there is hard to believe. Guess most folks think it was a fluke but I think you can pencil in another 20 HR, 10 bags and you just might get a .285 average.

Back to the game, where Dice-K is painfully losing control. A walk to hyped rookie Daric Barton (we'll talk more about him later), a Jack Cust hit-by-pitch and a wild pitch and the A's are in business.

But Bobby Crosby, who I think we can finally cross off our sleeper list - the guy just can't stay healthy and sports a nifty .240 career batting average - grounds out to Dice-K, who makes a Maddux-like play to first. Jack Hannahan strikes out swinging to snuff the rally.

Jack Hannahan? Isn't that the animal guy that's always on Letterman?

Live Blog 2: J.D. Drew scratched

Red Sox fans can't be happy about this.

Just before the lineups were handed in, J.D. Drew was scratched with a bad back. 

Drew had been having a great spring and was a sleeper pick by many, as the 5th hitter in the Red Sox lineup. He hit two home runs in exhibition games over in Tokyo the past few days.

Playing for Drew today is 24-year-old Brandon Moss of Monroe, Ga., who is so new, Yahoo! doesn't even has his mug.

Dustin Pedroia, an average 168th draft pick, starts the season out with a sharp single. A .317 hitter with 8 HR and 7 SB, Pedroia is leading off, as last year's World Series phenom Jacoby Elsbury and popular sleeper pick has struggled this spring and has been moved down to the 8th spot.

Blanton gets out of the first, without any damage and it's now Dice-K time.

Live Blog 1: Red Sox vs. A's

Good Morning, out there.

Is it early, or what?

The clock on the microwave says 5:50. I don't know when I've ever seen this.

But it's all for a good cause. After all, it's Opening Day, although not of the traditional kind, but still it's Major League Baseball's first game: Boston vs. Oakland from Tokyo.

Daisuke Matzusaka vs. Joe Blanton.

The moon is full and it's still pitch dark, yet we're about to embark on the first pitch at 6:05 a.m.

I'm trying to remember other times in the past 10 years I've set my alarm to get up before 6 a.m.

Once or twice, to catch an early flight. 

Once to run a marathon, twice for a half.

A few times to catch a bible study.

Once to catch the Aurora Borealis in Okeechobee, Fla., which was a complete waste of time.

Hopefully, I won't be saying that today.

It's 5:59 a.m. Let's play ball.

Is March Madness better than fantasy?

It's the morning after and your bracket is busted.

March Madness has never been better, especially if you're a Davidson fan. Or Western Kentucky alumni. You've gotta be out there somewhere.

But as we watched a stretch on Sunday afternoon, where Davidson came back from the dead to stun Georgetown and Tennessee edge Butler in a pulse-pounding overtime affair, just moments after Texas nearly suffered a monumental collapse against Miami, two thoughts came to mind.

1). Why doesn't CBS use split screen?

2). Is March Madness better than fantasy baseball?

The games are completely different. You fill out that bracket and for 3 weekends in March (or April), you find yourself cheering for teams that make no sense. One minute, Villanova is your sugar daddy. The next, you hate the Drake.

But as exhilarating as the NCAA Tourney can be, does it match 6 months of high's and low's that the fantasy baseball season provides?

• We all held our breath as Western Kentucky's Ty Rogers nailed a 26-foot 3-pointer as time expired. But that reminds you of that 2006 season, when everyone at the draft groaned when you picked The Gambler, Kenny Rogers, who led you to the championship with 17 wins and a 3.84 ERA.

• You were an emotional wreck at the end of the Stanford-Marquette game, as Brook Lopez got that amazing roll on the baseline leaner with 1.3 seconds left in overtime. This brings back memories of your 2003 team that rode Javy Lopez's 43 home run season to your first fantasy title.

• You couldn't help but jump off your couch as Stephen Curry drained 3-pointer after 3-pointer, then sliced through traffic with the underhanded scoop layup to lead Davidson to a stunning Sweet 16 berth. But that takes you back to June 10 last year, when, on a hunch, you put Stephen Drew in at SS in your daily head-to-head league, and with two-out in the ninth, he hammers a Trevor Hoffman pitch for the game-winner HR.

Maybe there is no right answer. The highs are higher in March Madness, sure, but the lows are lower.

In fantasy baseball, you learn to temper the agony, but when things go your way, you usually stay seated on your couch.

So, which is better in your opinion?

The Lackey, Kazmir quagmire

The nachos are cold.

Your beverage of choice is lukewarm.

It's that time of the draft. Somewhere between rounds 8 and 14, where the obvious guys have been crossed off your list.

You're flipping to page 2, maybe even page 3 of your personal Big Board and you notice guys like John Lackey and Scott Kazmir are suspiciously hanging around, like the last kid on the playground waiting to get picked.

What do you do?

You're not 100 percent sure of their status. Lackey has a strained triceps muscle and will be out 'til late April or mid-May, depending on who you believe. Kazmir is on the shelf with a strained left elbow and is expected to start the season out on the DL. The cloud of uncertainty hovers around both like smoke in a room of old-time sportswriters.

A healthy Lackey is ranked 59th overall by Yahoo. Kazmir 78th.

It's now the 9th round in your mixed-league draft and you're on the clock with the 89th pick and you need a starting pitcher.

You shuffle through a few lists and you see names like Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez and Brett Myers. Nobody jumps out at you. And like sheet metal to a giant magnet in a tornado, your eyes keep snapping back to two names: Lackey and Kazmir.

On one side of your brain, you drool at the upside, especially this late in the draft. On the other, you envision week after week of constantly clicking on the tiny red and yellow Yahoo update box, only to find that the guy is throwing on flat ground or maybe had a setback in his latest rehab.

My advice to you is simple: Wait two rounds after you start thinking about taking him, and if he's still there, pull the trigger.

Sure, you have to factor in injury history. For instance, with Rich Harden, you might wanna make this a 3-round rule. For Mark Prior, 3 rounds and a stiff drink. 

But whether it's the 9th or 10th or 18th round, most injury-risk pitchers can be a bargain, so long as you can protect yourself with some SP depth along the way.

All pitchers, to some degree, are a tweak or a twinge away from hitting the DL, so there are risks with anyone.

It's what makes this game so agonizing.

And yet we keep coming back.

No Silva lining here

Oh, to be an innings-eater.

Exibit A: Carlos Silva.

The 28-year-old former Twins pitcher signed a 4-year, $48 million offseason deal with the Mariners with a lifetime ERA of 4.31 and career 1.37 WHIP.

Holy Safeco.

In theory, going from the hitter-friendly Metrodome to spaceous Safeco Park, not to mention moving from the AL Central to the AL West should make Silva a perfect late-round draft choice, as the 6th or 7th pitcher on your staff.

But, I'm telling you, he doesn't pass the eye test. Listed generously at 246-pounds, the burly righty nearly suffered whiplash in a preseason game against the Cubs two weeks ago. Second-stringers Mike Fontenot, Matt Murton and Henry Blanco were teeing off so many times on Silva's offerings, they may have canceled their afternoon tee times at the local desert course.

But what if he can improve on last year's 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP?

If so, he's got a funny way of showing it.

So far, he's sporting a 9.20 ERA this spring after giving up 9 ER and 13 hits in 4 1/3 innings in his last outing earlier this week.

And even if he can somehow get that ERA and WHIP under control, he only struck out 89 last year in 202 innings, which was 13 more than his previous career-high of 76 (2004). That strikeout rate makes Mark Buerhle look like Nolan Ryan.

Do yourself a favor and practice not saying Silva's name. Regardless of the format or round. There's plenty of Carlos' to go around: Beltran. Pena. Delgado. And if by chance, you start saying Silva's name, do a quick change to Marmol.

Innings-eater? Sure.

But ERA- and WHIP-eater is more like it.

Draft Guide: Top 150, sleepers, busts

The sleeper.

Does this term even make any sense? If someone is sleeping, why would you want a snooze-fest on your fantasy team? And won't the eye-crispies impair his vision? Announcer: "The guy may be drowsy and sleepwalking down to first, but when he's awake can he mash the ball 500 feet."

I've always laughed at that overused term. Maybe, because I enjoy my sleep more than anyone. Give me 10 hours, and I'll have no problem filling it up with ZZZZZZZZ's.

So instead of giving you my 2008 sleepers, I've decided instead to present you with T-Bone's Choice Cuts. T-Bone's? Yeah, some yahoos around the office call me T-Bone, a nickname made famous by the legend of George Castanza. And nothing's better than a choice cut, right? Put these 5 guys on your radar and ride their upside all the way to a fantasy title.

T-BONE'S TOP 5 CHOICE CUTS

1). Billy Butler, 1B/OF, Royals
Guy can flat out rake. Over 1,400 minor league at-bats, Butler hit .336 with a .416 OBP and 25-HR power. There's a joke among his Royals' teammates that you can't let anything get close to him in the clubhouse, because he'll hit it. His average draft spot in ESPN drafts is 225. With regular playing time, Butler could crack the Top 100 this year.

2). Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
Hiding in the shadow of Homer Bailey, Cueto's minor league resume would land him an interview with any big league club. The 22-year-old righty sports a 3.28 ERA in three seasons, but more impressively is his 1.10 whip and 358 Ks in 348 innings. Not hurting his cause is a 2.08 ERA this spring. Manager Dusty Baker said last weekend if the camp broke then, Cueto will be in the rotation. "Who's better than him?" Baker said.

3). Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, Cubs
Flying under the radar, picked on average 216th, the Cubs' new leadoff man may be in the best stolen base/run scoring spot in baseball, setting the table for Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. A combination of 35 steals and 110 runs is very possible, which even if he hits .265 again makes him every bit as valuable as the Dodgers' Rafael Furcal, going 73rd in drafts.

4). Ian Kennedy, SP, Yankees
We've heard about Joba-mania and after his near no-hitter, Phil Hughes may never have to pay for a meal in the Big Apple again, but Kennedy may end up with the most fantasy value of the trio in 2008, especially after Chamberlain was sent to the bullpen this week. Kennedy's ERA of 1.89 last year in three starts is no fluke. Over 149 innings in the minors, he boasted a 1.87 ERA, not to mention a 0.97 WHIP. Sure, he's got Boston and Toronto to face a zillion times, but Kennedy may be able to win 15 in his sleep.

5). Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
Particularly hard to write, as a Cubs fan - whose team is still searching for a center fielder - is the name Hamilton. The Cubs drafted the former No. 1 pick in the Rule 5 draft last year, only to give him away to the Reds, where he became a bit of a cult hero in certain fantasy pockets, who root hard for the underdog to make it. It is a good story, as Hamilton has battled back from drug problems, but a sprained right wrist cost him over a month last year, then he was shipped to Texas despite 19 HR in 300 at-bats. What could he do in a full season in the heart of a lineup, in a park as small as the one in Arlington? How does 40 HR, 100 RBI and 15 SB sound for a guy drafted typically at 122? You could justify him in the 7th round of a mixed league.

TOP 5 OVERCOOKED

1. Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins
I know what you're thinking. Liriano was so good in 2006, even if he only comes back 80 percent, he'll be a steal. Sure. But positive reports are just hard to come by. Forget that he has to shoulder expectations as the Twins ace with Johan Santana gone. A year removed from "Tommy John" surgery and the guy's slider isn't sliding and his velocity is down to the low-90s. There's been whispers Liriano might start at AAA and he's quoted as saying he's going to throw a lot of fastballs this year, which is like trying to pick up girl at a bar, by holding her elbow and saying "what's a joint like this doing in a girl like you." You're just asking for trouble. Save yourself the headache and instead take Gallardo, Lincecum, Shields or Hill, all guys usually taken behind Liriano.

2). Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers
There was a time when Furcal was an elite SS, bringing home 12-15 dingers and 40 SB. Those days may be gone for the 30-year-old after last year's 6 HR, 25 SB and .270 season. More troubling was his walks (55) hit a 6-year low. An average ESPN pick of 73rd overall is way too high; 173 is more like it.

3. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs
Who's partisan now? After watching Ramirez lumber to first in Arizona (and if there was a slower term than lumber, I'd use it), I can only surmise that he is woefully out of shape or is just not trying that hard. Or worse, both. Maybe the Cubs have told him to half-speed it to save him from further leg injuries (he missed 30 games last year). Fine. But after missing significant time two of the past three years, you have to wonder if the 29-year-old will ever play more than 140 games in a season again. Reasonable to expect 120 games, 25 jacks, 95 ribbies and a .295 average, but that doesn't make him an average 34th overall pick.

4. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners
I know, it's only spring training, but an 0-for-21 funk to start the spring for a 34-year-old who makes a living with his legs would make me a little squimish to say the name Ichiro before the 4th round of any draft. Currently, he's been picked on average 19th in mixed-league formats, but when you get a magnifying glass out, you can start to see the wrinkles in Ichiro's game. Homers the last three years have whittled from 15 to 9 to 6 in 2007. Remember 2006 when Ichiro stole 45 bases in 47 attempts. That's smok-and-mirror numbers. Last year, he stole 37, but was gunned down 8 times. The thing that separates Ichiro apart from the Figgins and Roberts of the world is his constant high average. But will you get the 2004 Ichiro (.372) or the 2005 (.303)? Hard to say, but it might be best to let someone else sweat out that answer.

5. Joe Mauer, C, Twins
Two years ago, Mauer carried me to a rousing 5th-place finish in the Observer league, hitting .347. Last year, he was injured again, missed 30-35 games, and hit a disappointing .293. OK, so I'm a little bitter. But how do you fully trust a catcher with quad injury history? Especially when his speed is part of his game. Similar to Carl Crawford, we wait around like devout monks for the power to develop, but a drop from 13 to 7 HR last year is not what the fantasy doctor ordered. Mauer is still young (24) with upside, but he may be hitting 2nd this year and without a true leadoff hitter in front of him, we may be looking at a 10 /60 season. Hard to make him a top 3 catcher with an average that is, well, average.


Top 150 Overall
(10-team, 5x5, mixed league)

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
2. Jose Reyes, SS, NYM
3. David Wright, 3B, NYM
4. Matt Holliday, OF, Col
5. Johan Santana, SP, NYM
6. Miguel Cabrera, OF, Det
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Phi
8. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Fla
9. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phi
10. David Ortiz, 1B, Bos
11. Carl Crawford, OF, TB
12. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi
13. Ryan Braun, 3B, Mil
14. Prince Fielder, 1B, Mil
15. Albert Pujols, 1B, STL
16. Jake Peavy, SP, SD
17. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cle
18. B.J. Upton, OF, TB
19. Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC
20. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Atl
21. Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM
22. Magglio Ordonez, OF, Det
23. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin
24. Erik Bedard, SP, Sea
25. Carlos Lee, OF, Hou
26. Vladimir Guerrero, OF, LAA
27. Eric Byrnes, OF, Ari
28 Curtis Granderson, OF, Det
29. Lance Berkman, OF, Hou
30. Travis Hafner, 1B, Cle
31. Justin Morneau, 1B, Min
32. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Cle
33. Nick Markakis, OF, Bal
34. Alex Rios, OF, Tor
35. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Sea
36. Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B
37. Manny Ramirez, OF, Bos
38. Chone Figgins, 2B/3B/OF, LAA
39. Brian Roberts, 2B, Bal
40. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Cle
41. Russell Martin, C, LAD
42. Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS
43. Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
45. Garrett Atkins, 3B, Col
46. Adam Dunn, OF, Cin
47. Carlos Pena, 1B, TB
48. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
49. Derek Lee, 1B, ChC
51. Brandon Webb, SP, Ari
52. Cole Hamels, SP, Phi
53. Gary Sheffield, OF, Det
54. Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY
55. Dan Haren, SP, Ari
56. Josh Beckett, SP, Bos
57. Justin Verlander, SP, Det
58. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Bos
59. J.J. Putz, RP, Sea
60. Joe Nathan, RP, Min
61. Tori Hunter, OF, LAA
62. Chris Young, OF, Ari
63. Corey Hart, OF, Mil
64. Hunter Pence, OF, Hou
65. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex
66. Michael Young, 2B, Tex
67. Chipper Jones, OF, Atl
68. Carlos Zambrano, SP, CHC
69. Vernon Wells, OF, Tor
70. Roy Halladay, SP, Tor
71. Miguel Tejada, SS, Hou
72. Ricky Weeks, 2B, Mil
73. Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea
74. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
75. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD
76. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, LAA
77. Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY

78. Billy Wagner, RP, Phi
79. Brian McCann, C, Atl
80. Chipper Jones, C, Atl
81 Paul Konerko, 1B, ChW
82. Scott Kazmir, SP, TB
83. Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou
84. Fauston Carmona, SP, Cle
85. Josh Hamilton, OF, Tex
86. Delmon Young, OF, TB
87. Aaron Harang, SP, Cin
88. Nick Swisher, OF, ChW
89. Jim Thome, DH, ChW
90. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Atl
91. Jorge Posada, C, NYY
92. Jermaine Dye, OF, CHW
93. John Smotz, SP, Atl
94. Billy Butler, OF/1B, KC
95. Jason Bay, OF, Pit
96. Dan Uggla, 2B, Fla
97. Bobby Jenks, RP, CHW
98. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Bos
99. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Was
100. Edgar Renteria, SS, Det
101. Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA
102. Manny Corpas, RP, Col
103. Brad Hawpe, OF, Col
104. Shane Victorino, OF, Phi
105. Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY
106. Alex Gordon, 1B/OF, KC
107. Jose Valverde, RP, Hou
108. Rafael Soriano, RP, Atl
109. Joe Mauer, C, Minn
110. Todd Helton, 1B, Col
111. James Shields, SP, TB
112. Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
113. Orlando Cabrera, SS, CHW
114. Jose Valverde, RP, Hou
115. Javier Vazquez, SP, CHW
116. Rich Hill, SP, CHC
117. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atl
118. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil
119. Mike Lowell, 3B, Bos
120. Dustin McGowan, SP, Tor
121. John Lackey, RP, LAA
122 Brett Myers, RP/SP, Phi
123. Huston Street, RP, Oak
124. Francisco Liriano, SP, Min
125. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Sea
126. Joba Chamberlain, RP, NYY
127. Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
128. John Maine, SP, NYM
129. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
130. Aaron Rowand, SP, SF
131. Tim Hudson, SP, Atl
132. Placido Polanco, 2B, Det
133. Chad Cordero, RP, Was
134. Ryan Garko, 1B, Cle
135. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos
136. Aaron Rowan, OF, SF
137. Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM
138. Brett Myers, SP, Phi
139. Pat Burrell, OF, Phi
140. Kelvim Escobar, SP, LAA
141. Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHC
142. A.J. Burnett, SP, Tor
143. Francisco Cordero, RP, Cin
144. Matt Capps, RP, Pit
145. Joakim Soria, RP, KC
146. Johnny Damon, OF, NYY
147. Chad Billingsley, RP/SP, LAD
148. Ken Griffey Jr., OF, Cin
149. Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, CHC
150. Clay Bucholtz, SP, Bos

Have a beef with these rankings? Lemme hear it.