Saturday, April 5, 2008

Mailbag: Time to skimp on Kemp?

Fantasy Mailbag:

What is your opinion of Matt Kemp? Is he ever going to be a full-time guy for L.A.?
- Brian I.


Thanks for the question, Brian.

And the answer right now is about as hazy as the Los Angeles smog.

At 6-4, 210 pounds, Kemp is a physical specimen and is a 5-tool guy, minus a tape measure ... his defensive skills leave a little to be desired.

But from a fantasy perspective, he's a 4-tool wonder, who has 25/25 potential, if he were to ever get regular at-bats.

In five games so far, we've seen Kemp hit 3rd, benched for Juan Pierre (pinch-hitting for Pierre in the 6th), hit 7th, 7th and benched again today.

Right now, it looks like Andruw Jones and Andre Ethier are getting the regular at-bats early, but if you're a Kemp owner, be not dismayed. The Dodgers shipped off old man Luis Gonzalez for a reason and it's because of Kemp's ceiling, which is much higher than Ether, but Kemp will have to prove himself or start bribing first-year manager Joe Torre.

Last year, Kemp was a 10/10 guy in 292 at-bats, hitting .342. Clearly, Grady Little didn't utilize him properly. No way a .342 hitter with power and speed should be platooned, but that's Little for you.

Torre seems to lean toward veterans, which makes you think Pierre will get more at-bats going forward, but this is very fluid situation and by June 1, you'll should see a steady diet of Kemp in RF and probably in the heart of the batting order. Pierre and Ethier will eventually lose the starts.

If this happens, think of Kemp as Hideki Matsui-value, but his range this year is anywhere from Raul Ibanez to Gary Sheffield, the 2007 version.

My guess is he'll end up with 500-550 at-bats a 25/20 season, batting .308, driving in 90.

There's room for that guy on any roster. And Torre is too good of a manager to not see it.

Keep the questions coming. I'll continue to answer reader questions in my mailbag segments throughout the season.

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