Where did the speed go?

You're hurting in steals.

Bad.

So, you conjure up an offer. Counter-offer. Back and forth. 

Finally, you pry Jacoby Ellsbury from the palms of his owner, although it cost you Jermaine Dye. 

And what happens?

Nothing. 

A couple weeks ago, there were chat rooms buzzing about Ellsbury possibly swiping 100.

After all, the Red Sox, whom Jonathan Papelbon introduced on FOX yesterday as "Speedy Gonzalez" stole six games on May 30 and May 31 at Baltimore. He stole four more on June 14 and 15 in Cincy's Great American Ballpark. 

Now, you've had him for two weeks and what? One lousy steal and four caught stealing? Ah yes, the dreaded CS.

Has Ellsbury slowed? Is he hurt? All questions you try to Google, but to no avail.

Or maybe you had your eye on Carlos Gomez at the draft and just missed getting him late. Then, in agony, you watched him swipe 17 bases by May 11. 

You unload the kitchen sink for him. Evan Longoria? Man, you hate to, but you need the speed.

Then, in almost two months since, Gomez registers only 4 steals, caught 6 times.

And you throw up your hands in fantasy despair.

But what can you do?

Pretty much, absolutely nothing. Speed is one category that seems predictable, but can be deceiving. So many factors come into play.

Does the manager encourage running? Does the player have the green light? Is he getting on base? Who's hitting behind him? Is he hitting a lot of doubles and triples? Does he have a tweak in his quad or hammy? Are pitchers paying closer attention and holding him tighter? Does his team play in a lot of blowout games?

Could be any and all of the above.

That's why you should subscribe to the rule, only break the bank for a guy who has proven he'll run consistently. 

Whether that's Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Chone Figgins, Juan Pierre, these are guys who have shown they'll be running year after year. 

Sure, a leg injury could throw off their SB totals. 

But taking a chance on a Michael Bourn or a Gomez or Ellsbury is just that: A chance.

If these guys keep running, you probably get them for under retail. If not, you look like a sucker.

But don't worry. There's probably someone else still willing to take this guy off your hands.

Start shopping now.