Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Can K-Rod save 60?

On April 27, a reader asked if Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez had a shot at breaking Bobby Thigpen's saves record of 57.

K-Rod had already missed about a week in that first month with an ankle injury, yet still had 10 saves.

Astutely, I gazed into my crystal ball and determined that K-Rod would fall 6 saves short with 51.


Fast forward to June 23 and we have Mr. Rodriguez nailing down his 31st save.

Remarkably, of the Angels' 47 wins, 35 of them have produced a save situation. I haven't spent much time drinking coffee in the Elias Sports Bureau, but that kind of ratio has gotta be close to a MLB record.

Scott Shields has recorded 2 saves with K-Rod converting 31 of his 33 chances. His other numbers have been stellar as well:  2.06 ERA/1.17 WHIP/33 Ks in 35 IP. 

Not to mention, opposing hitters are batting .174 against him.

What's this all mean? 

1). While it's hard to imagine the Angels can keep winning this many close games, the saves record is easily within reach.

2). My new prediction is K-Rod delivers 60 saves this season, breaking Thigpen's record with a week to play, likely Sept. 23 at Seattle.

3). It is possible K-Rod's arm completely falls off. But I doubt it.

4). Don't ever overpay for a closer. On almost every "expert" preseason ranking, K-Rod was no higher than No. 5.  You just never know who will explode. Look at the O's George Sherrill. He was ranked 20th or higher by most publications and he's recorded 25 saves with a good ERA/WHIP.

5). Obscure baseball trivia buffs may no longer be able to play the Bobby Thigpen card.

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