Friday, June 6, 2008

Triple Crown for Chipper, Lance, Josh?

Can you feel it?

Triple Crown hype is nearing an all-time high.

The obvious hub-bub is circulating around Big Brown and this week, what exactly going on with his hoof. But this is all just filler. Nothing's really wrong with the hoof and my insider says Brown will break away from the pack at Belmont, the longest leg of the Triple Crown.

Since this isn't a fantasy horse racing blog, I won't bore you with the details of why Brown's draw, starting near the inside is not in his favor. I realize most of you don't really care.

If you do, click on this video preview clip.



For those of you still left, let's talk baseball's triple crown, which has gained momentum with three player in the conversation: Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Josh Hamilton.

Let's break down the odds:

Chipper Jones: Currently hitting .418 with 14 HR and 39 RBI. The average has baseball historians talking Ted Williams, but coming from a .310 career hitting, we're probably looking at a .350 or .360 season tops. Not that Chipper owners could complain. Larry (his surname) has never been a huge HR guy. Almost a decade ago (99), he smacked 45 dingers, but outside of that his ceiling has been the high-30s and Chase Utley's insane start (21 HR) will make that feat close to impossible.
Forecast: .358, 32 HR, 107 RBI
Triple Crown Odds: 20-1

Lance Berkman: Currently hitting .382 with 17 HR and 48 RBI. Has anyone been hotter than Berkman? (Insert Lance in your Pants quip here). But Lance has insulation in his lineup, hitting between Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee and the results have been almost super-human. Look for a cooling off at some point, but Berkman has shown both power and average qualities - just two years ago he hit .315 with 45 HR. Utley's power, Chipper's average and Adrian Gonzalez's ribbies (55 RBI) are his current biggest obstacles.
Forecast: .352, 41 HR, 131 RBI
Triple Crown Odds: 10-1

Check out one of Berkman's 17 long balls here:




Josh Hamilton: Currently hitting .321 with 17 HR and 68 RBI. (That's right, 68, it's not a misprint). Those of you who saw Hamilton doing this, raise your hand? Liars. Hamilton was drafted on average in near double-digit rounds. In my AL-only draft, he lasted until the 6th round - and this was a league where at least two owners were very honed into his upside. Still, there were questions about his health and very few thought Hamilton could make it through the year. It's still early June, but Hamilton will be on everyone's first-round list if he keeps this up. The question is, will it last? Or more specifically, will he last? The current pace will not. Hack Wilson's 191-RBI record is probably safe. But 160 is possible and don't undervalue the jet stream on warm Arlilngton summer nights. If it wasn't for guys like Michael Young and Ichiro in average and Carlos Quentin in the power categories, Hamilton might be able to put it on cruise control and still win this thing.
Forecast: .324, 43 HR, 158 RBI
Triple Crown Odds: 5-1

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