Friday, June 13, 2008

Time to trade Josh Hamilton?

Buy low.

Sell high.

Stripped down to its core, that's how you win at fantasy baseball.

Sure, drafting well helps. Astute waiver wire pickups can also make an impact.

But as "The Gambler" once hummed before drifting off to sleep, "You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em."

Enter Josh Hamilton.

In 66 games, the Rangers OF has racked up sick numbers: 17 HR, 71 RBI, 46 runs and a .316 average.

But does anyone believe he can keep up this pace?

My cohorts and I have pondered this question. Almost all of us agree Hamilton will probably miss at least 20 games this year. His drug past and injury history has us all a little worried. But even with 140 games, 140 ribbies is still possible, although not probable.

But 165?

Hamilton's value will likely never get any higher. Even if he escapes the injury bug and stays clean, pitchers will eventually start pitching around him at a greater rate. His two grand slams and five 4+ RBI games have been most impressive, but laws of averages and managers continually getting burned will eventually catch up to him.

So, why not cash out?

Outside of Lance Berkman, there's probably no bigger trading chip in the game. So whether it's starting pitching, saves or speed, trading Hamilton can patch two, maybe three holes in one deal.

And if your league is anything like the three I'm in, the Hamilton owner isn't in first or second place in any league, speaking to the number of other roster pot holes his owner has to fill.

It's time to scour your category races and start targeting some underperformers.

Hamilton's story is wonderful. One of the best in the bigs and I couldn't be happier for him (outside of the Cubs not trading him to the Reds).

But there is no fantasy value for sentiment.

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